Jake Evans vs Nathan MacKinnon

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Jake Evans holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Evans 52.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+5.4%)
H2H factor Evans leads 17-11 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone MacKinnon 58.9%
Defensive zone Evans 89.1%
Neutral zone Evans 77.3%
Result Jake Evans favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Evans MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
17 - 11 (28 meetings)
17
11
Evans MacKinnon
Last 10: Evans 7-3 MacKinnon

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
6
Evans MacKinnon
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
10
1
Evans MacKinnon
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Evans MacKinnon
8 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
46.1% (11,218)
+7.7%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
53.3% (1,412)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
42.8% (502)
+4.3%
On even strength, Evans has a +7.7% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
53.4% (2,593)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
54.0%
47.4%
P2
50.9%
46.6%
P3
52.0%
46.1%
OT
46.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
49.0%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%
60.5%
52.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%
54.0%
46.8%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 29, 2026 3 17:39 Offensive Jake Evans
Nov 29, 2025 3 05:35 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 29, 2025 1 13:25 Neutral Jake Evans
Nov 29, 2025 1 05:47 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 22, 2025 3 19:08 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Mar 22, 2025 3 09:29 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Mar 22, 2025 3 09:24 Neutral Jake Evans
Mar 22, 2025 3 05:55 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 22, 2025 2 17:07 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 22, 2025 2 00:00 Neutral Jake Evans
Mar 22, 2025 1 16:32 Offensive Jake Evans
Jan 4, 2025 OT 01:11 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 4, 2025 OT 01:02 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 4, 2025 3 07:35 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 26, 2024 3 19:49 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 26, 2024 2 17:20 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 26, 2024 2 13:03 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Mar 26, 2024 2 09:12 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 26, 2024 2 08:30 Defensive Jake Evans
Mar 26, 2024 1 07:13 Defensive Jake Evans