Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 17-11 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 77.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Evans
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
11
(28 meetings)
17
11
Evans
MacKinnon
Last 10: Evans 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
6
Evans
MacKinnon
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
10
1
Evans
MacKinnon
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Evans
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
46.1% (11,218)
+7.7%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
53.3% (1,412)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
42.8% (502)
+4.3%
On even strength, Evans has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
53.4% (2,593)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
54.0%
47.4%
P2
50.9%
46.6%
P3
52.0%
46.1%
OT
46.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 4, 2025 | OT | 01:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2025 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |