Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 90.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 61.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Evans
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Evans
MacKinnon
Last 10: Evans 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Evans
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
49.2% (1,266)
+5.2%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
54.9% (193)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
49.1% (55)
-1.0%
On power play, Evans has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
55.1% (541)
50.9% (740)
Away
50.8% (581)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
51.8%
50.9%
P2
53.3%
51.8%
P3
53.8%
47.1%
OT
38.5%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 4, 2025 | OT | 01:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2025 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |