Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 51.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 92.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 82.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 86.0%
86.0%
14.0%
Evans
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Evans
MacKinnon
Last 8: Evans 6-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Evans
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
0
Evans
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Evans
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
45.5% (1,190)
+8.9%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
56.4% (94)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
40.0% (30)
+6.1%
On even strength, Evans has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
53.7% (581)
47.8% (670)
Away
50.5% (556)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
54.6%
45.3%
P2
50.0%
48.5%
P3
52.3%
45.0%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 16:14 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 11:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |