Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+7.6%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 67.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Evans
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
44.7% (1,053)
+9.8%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
36.8% (95)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
65.0% (20)
-21.1%
On power play, Evans has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Evans shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Evans
MacKinnon
Home
49.4% (336)
49.4% (553)
Away
54.8% (314)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Evans
MacKinnon
P1
55.8%
45.3%
P2
51.7%
42.7%
P3
48.2%
45.1%
OT
100.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%