Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Paul 53.3% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 72.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 82.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 66.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 72.3%
27.7%
72.3%
Evans
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Evans
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
53.2% (327)
+3.0%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
61.4% (57)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
50.0% (32)
+5.4%
On power play, Evans has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Paul is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Evans
Paul
Home
55.3% (374)
54.6% (183)
Away
57.1% (317)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Evans
Paul
P1
58.5%
56.3%
P2
55.7%
54.8%
P3
53.9%
52.4%
OT
66.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
54.3%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Jake Evans |