Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Paul 50.0% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 51.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 88.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 65.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Evans
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Evans
Paul
Last 10: Evans 8-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
7
1
Evans
Paul
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
48.8% (666)
+5.6%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
53.8% (65)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
60.0% (55)
-11.9%
On power play, Evans has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Evans
Paul
Home
55.1% (541)
49.7% (348)
Away
50.8% (581)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Evans
Paul
P1
51.8%
51.0%
P2
53.3%
47.4%
P3
53.8%
51.5%
OT
38.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 13:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |