Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 50.4%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 49.8% vs Paul 50.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 53.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 52.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Evans
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Evans
Paul
Last 6: Evans 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Evans
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (739)
53.0% (644)
-1.7%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
37.5% (24)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (172)
42.9% (177)
+0.1%
On power play, Evans has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Evans is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (667).
Evans shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Evans
Paul
Home
52.1% (503)
52.5% (516)
Away
47.0% (423)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Evans
Paul
P1
50.5%
47.6%
P2
47.7%
48.4%
P3
51.3%
54.5%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 15:38 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |