Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Paul 53.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 67.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 66.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 54.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Evans
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Evans
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
53.8% (753)
+0.7%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
58.9% (90)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
47.4% (78)
-3.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Evans shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Evans
Paul
Home
49.4% (336)
54.2% (450)
Away
54.8% (314)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Evans
Paul
P1
55.8%
58.2%
P2
51.7%
50.6%
P3
48.2%
52.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 1 | 05:46 | Neutral | Nick Paul |