Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Paul 53.9% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 89.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 69.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 61.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Evans
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Evans
Paul
Last 10: Evans 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
1
Evans
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
4
3
Evans
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
53.1% (710)
+1.3%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
57.3% (199)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
58.0% (69)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Evans
Paul
Home
53.7% (581)
56.0% (466)
Away
50.5% (556)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Evans
Paul
P1
54.6%
57.2%
P2
50.0%
54.9%
P3
52.3%
51.5%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Nick Paul |