Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Cates 45.5% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 61.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 89.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 91.8%
91.8%
8.2%
Evans
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Evans
Cates
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Evans
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
7
1
Evans
Cates
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
45.4% (712)
+10.8%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
42.2% (102)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
44.7% (47)
+10.7%
On power play, Evans has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Evans
Cates
Home
55.3% (374)
46.3% (423)
Away
57.1% (317)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Evans
Cates
P1
58.5%
46.3%
P2
55.7%
47.1%
P3
53.9%
42.1%
OT
66.7%
18.2%
Final 5 min
54.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |