Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 66.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 92.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 84.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Evans
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Evans
Cates
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
4
Evans
Cates
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
11
3
Evans
Cates
14 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Evans
Cates
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
44.1% (2,742)
+9.7%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
43.0% (242)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
34.9% (373)
+12.2%
On power play, Evans has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Evans
Cates
Home
53.4% (2,593)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Evans
Cates
P1
54.0%
44.5%
P2
50.9%
43.5%
P3
52.0%
41.2%
OT
46.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:42 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |