Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Cates 40.4% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 57.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 64.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Evans
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Evans
Cates
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Evans
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
40.4% (841)
+14.1%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
42.4% (66)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
32.7% (147)
+11.2%
On power play, Evans has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Evans shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Evans
Cates
Home
49.4% (336)
38.2% (566)
Away
54.8% (314)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Evans
Cates
P1
55.8%
40.5%
P2
51.7%
42.4%
P3
48.2%
35.3%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:25 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Noah Cates |