Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Cates 45.1% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 70.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 61.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Evans
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Evans
Cates
Last 7: Evans 3-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
4
Evans
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
46.7% (912)
+7.7%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
33.9% (56)
+32.8%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
35.0% (137)
+13.1%
On power play, Evans has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Evans
Cates
Home
55.1% (541)
46.1% (521)
Away
50.8% (581)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Evans
Cates
P1
51.8%
48.0%
P2
53.3%
42.3%
P3
53.8%
44.3%
OT
38.5%
31.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:42 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |