Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Greig 50.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 58.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 83.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Evans
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Evans
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Greig
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
51.5% (336)
+4.7%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
66.7% (24)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
43.2% (81)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Greig is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Evans
Greig
Home
55.3% (374)
50.2% (247)
Away
57.1% (317)
51.5% (194)
By Period
Evans
Greig
P1
58.5%
46.9%
P2
55.7%
58.8%
P3
53.9%
48.3%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 12:40 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 2 | 17:56 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |