Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.3%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs McLeod 52.1% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 62.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 67.7%
Neutral zone
McLeod 50.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Evans
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Evans
McLeod
Last 10: Evans 6-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
McLeod
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
4
Evans
McLeod
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
52.9% (904)
+1.5%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
57.6% (59)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
49.0% (241)
-0.9%
On power play, Evans has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. McLeod is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Home / Away
Evans
McLeod
Home
55.1% (541)
51.8% (612)
Away
50.8% (581)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Evans
McLeod
P1
51.8%
55.4%
P2
53.3%
50.8%
P3
53.8%
51.6%
OT
38.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:17 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 19:11 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:58 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Jake Evans |