Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Gourde 46.0% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 51.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 81.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 65.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Evans
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Evans
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
47.2% (654)
+9.0%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
45.0% (20)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
32.2% (87)
+23.2%
On power play, Evans has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Evans
Gourde
Home
55.3% (374)
44.1% (322)
Away
57.1% (317)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Evans
Gourde
P1
58.5%
42.4%
P2
55.7%
49.8%
P3
53.9%
44.3%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |