Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.6% vs 47.1%). Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 47.4% vs Poehling 47.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 83.1%
Defensive zone
Poehling 86.4%
Neutral zone
Poehling 59.2%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Guentzel
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Guentzel
Poehling
Last 5: Guentzel 3-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
3
0
Guentzel
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Guentzel
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (200)
49.8% (626)
-0.8%
Power Play
42.3% (111)
58.3% (12)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (24)
38.2% (207)
+7.6%
On power play, Poehling has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Guentzel shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Poehling
Home
48.8% (166)
47.3% (404)
Away
44.4% (169)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Guentzel
Poehling
P1
46.7%
53.5%
P2
48.5%
39.4%
P3
44.3%
49.1%
OT
42.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
48.4%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |