Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.3% vs Poehling 48.1% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 89.6%
Defensive zone
Poehling 90.0%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 54.7%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Guentzel
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Guentzel
Poehling
Last 7: Guentzel 3-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
3
0
Guentzel
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Guentzel
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Guentzel
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (685)
49.4% (2,726)
-3.1%
Power Play
45.7% (291)
51.6% (93)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (42)
41.6% (623)
+1.3%
On power play, Poehling has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Guentzel shoots left. Poehling is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,301).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Poehling
Home
48.3% (544)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
43.2% (474)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Guentzel
Poehling
P1
47.8%
50.9%
P2
45.2%
47.0%
P3
45.3%
46.9%
OT
33.3%
37.9%
Final 5 min
42.5%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |