Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Benn on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Benn wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Benn 52.9% vs Cates 43.2% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Benn leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Benn 95.5%
Defensive zone
Benn 69.4%
Neutral zone
Benn 84.3%
Result
Jamie Benn favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Benn
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Benn
Cates
Last 10: Benn 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
3
1
Benn
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Benn
5
1
Benn
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Benn
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Benn
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,450)
44.1% (2,742)
+9.4%
Power Play
52.5% (2,054)
43.0% (242)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (515)
34.9% (373)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, Benn has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Benn is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,269).
Benn shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Benn
Cates
Home
54.9% (4,547)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
51.0% (4,488)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Benn
Cates
P1
51.9%
44.5%
P2
52.6%
43.5%
P3
54.0%
41.2%
OT
62.4%
29.4%
Final 5 min
53.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:40 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 02:54 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |