Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). McCann wins 42.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 43.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
McCann 83.4%
Defensive zone
McCann 66.6%
Neutral zone
McCann 76.9%
Result
Jared McCann favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
McCann
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
15
(25 meetings)
10
15
McCann
Dowd
Last 10: McCann 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCann
5
0
McCann
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
9
McCann
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
6
McCann
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (3,178)
52.4% (6,009)
-9.3%
Power Play
40.0% (260)
56.1% (164)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (173)
44.1% (1,635)
-1.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McCann is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,310).
McCann shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
McCann
Dowd
Home
43.1% (1,758)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
42.5% (1,855)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
McCann
Dowd
P1
44.4%
51.7%
P2
41.7%
50.4%
P3
42.7%
50.3%
OT
36.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
41.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:06 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 11:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 03:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 2 | 04:43 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 15:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |