Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McCann wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 46.3% vs Hertl 52.3% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCann 82.4%
Defensive zone
McCann 70.4%
Neutral zone
McCann 75.3%
Result
Jared McCann favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
McCann
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McCann
Hertl
Last 8: McCann 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McCann
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
McCann
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
McCann
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (428)
51.6% (1,084)
-5.6%
Power Play
39.3% (56)
61.0% (246)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
44.1% (136)
+18.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCann is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (305).
McCann shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
McCann
Hertl
Home
45.1% (244)
55.2% (696)
Away
46.0% (248)
50.0% (770)
By Period
McCann
Hertl
P1
42.5%
55.4%
P2
45.9%
54.8%
P3
47.8%
48.9%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▲
44.0%
45.5%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 03:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 19:29 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |