Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs Tavares 57.2% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.4%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 90.6%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 71.4%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Dickinson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Dickinson
Tavares
Last 5: Dickinson 1-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Dickinson
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Dickinson
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
58.0% (914)
-6.2%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
57.0% (235)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (150)
57.9% (19)
-19.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Dickinson shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Tavares
Home
48.7% (419)
57.8% (614)
Away
50.4% (383)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Dickinson
Tavares
P1
42.6%
58.0%
P2
55.0%
56.9%
P3
50.0%
58.4%
OT
60.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
44.1%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |