Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dickinson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs Duchene 51.6% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.2%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 80.1%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 50.1%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Dickinson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Dickinson
Duchene
Last 9: Dickinson 5-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Dickinson
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
3
1
Dickinson
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dickinson
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
51.2% (324)
+0.6%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
60.4% (53)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (150)
16.7% (6)
+22.0%
On penalty kill, Dickinson has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Dickinson shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Duchene
Home
48.7% (419)
51.6% (182)
Away
50.4% (383)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Dickinson
Duchene
P1
42.6%
49.6%
P2
55.0%
56.2%
P3
50.0%
48.6%
OT
60.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 07:53 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |