Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 48.0% vs Duchene 52.1% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.6%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 85.8%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 59.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
Dickinson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Dickinson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
3
Dickinson
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (626)
53.9% (193)
-5.3%
Power Play
44.0% (25)
49.2% (65)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (120)
100.0% (1)
-55.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +55.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Dickinson is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Dickinson shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Duchene
Home
45.4% (368)
54.9% (113)
Away
49.9% (403)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Dickinson
Duchene
P1
49.2%
54.9%
P2
46.3%
52.7%
P3
48.1%
51.9%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
47.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 18:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |