Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 50.0% vs Duchene 55.6% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.4%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 84.0%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 59.3%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Dickinson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dickinson
Duchene
Last 8: Dickinson 3-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Dickinson
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
2
1
Dickinson
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (912)
56.5% (566)
-5.3%
Power Play
63.8% (58)
61.3% (62)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (266)
22.2% (9)
+20.7%
On penalty kill, Dickinson has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Dickinson is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Dickinson shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Duchene
Home
52.9% (664)
56.6% (318)
Away
46.7% (572)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Dickinson
Duchene
P1
49.0%
57.2%
P2
48.3%
55.1%
P3
52.5%
55.6%
OT
61.5%
81.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
50.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:30 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:53 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 01:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |