Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.5% vs Duchene 52.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.6%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 82.2%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 55.1%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Dickinson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Dickinson
Duchene
Last 10: Dickinson 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Dickinson
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
2
1
Dickinson
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Dickinson
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (695)
53.0% (723)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
49.5% (101)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (210)
43.8% (16)
-1.4%
On power play, Dickinson has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Dickinson is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Dickinson shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Duchene
Home
53.6% (489)
54.9% (408)
Away
44.7% (427)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Dickinson
Duchene
P1
47.7%
52.5%
P2
52.1%
51.7%
P3
47.8%
53.6%
OT
83.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 05:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |