Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Dickinson 58.7%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 92.9%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 75.7%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Dickinson 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Dickinson
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Dickinson
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Dickinson
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
55.3% (815)
-3.5%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
58.0% (219)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (150)
49.2% (124)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Dickinson shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Home
48.7% (419)
55.8% (579)
Away
50.4% (383)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Dickinson
O'Reilly
P1
42.6%
57.5%
P2
55.0%
54.7%
P3
50.0%
54.1%
OT
60.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |