Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.5% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 61.6%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 90.7%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 67.0%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Dickinson 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Dickinson
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
4
1
Dickinson
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Dickinson
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (695)
56.2% (983)
-4.7%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
55.5% (254)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (210)
52.0% (102)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dickinson is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Dickinson shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Home
53.6% (489)
56.2% (697)
Away
44.7% (427)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Dickinson
O'Reilly
P1
47.7%
54.5%
P2
52.1%
55.5%
P3
47.8%
57.1%
OT
83.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:32 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:34 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:14 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 18:43 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 18:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 08:20 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |