Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dickinson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.1%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 86.0%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 50.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Dickinson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Dickinson
Hertl
Last 10: Dickinson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
6
Dickinson
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
5
1
Dickinson
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Dickinson
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
58.1% (823)
-6.3%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
56.2% (265)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (150)
62.9% (35)
-24.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Dickinson shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Hertl
Home
48.7% (419)
59.7% (561)
Away
50.4% (383)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Dickinson
Hertl
P1
42.6%
51.6%
P2
55.0%
63.8%
P3
50.0%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:35 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |