Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 47.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 34-26 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
Dickinson 61.5%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 87.7%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 76.6%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Dickinson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
34
(60 meetings)
26
34
Dickinson
Hertl
Last 10: Dickinson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
21
Dickinson
Hertl
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
10
5
Dickinson
Hertl
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dickinson
9
8
Dickinson
Hertl
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,363)
53.8% (8,268)
-4.8%
Power Play
51.1% (141)
59.3% (1,975)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (884)
46.3% (806)
-5.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dickinson is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,448).
Dickinson shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Hertl
Home
49.3% (2,779)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
45.9% (2,609)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Dickinson
Hertl
P1
46.9%
53.6%
P2
48.1%
54.1%
P3
47.8%
55.3%
OT
52.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
47.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:35 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |