Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dickinson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dickinson wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 48.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.5%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 62.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Dickinson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Dickinson
Hertl
Last 9: Dickinson 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Dickinson
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
3
0
Dickinson
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Dickinson
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (626)
54.1% (1,117)
-5.5%
Power Play
44.0% (25)
59.8% (296)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (120)
34.4% (32)
+9.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dickinson is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Dickinson shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Hertl
Home
45.4% (368)
54.3% (709)
Away
49.9% (403)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Dickinson
Hertl
P1
49.2%
51.6%
P2
46.3%
53.6%
P3
48.1%
58.6%
OT
44.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
47.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 18:00 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 18:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 10:54 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |