Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.5% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.5%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 89.7%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 57.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Dickinson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dickinson
Hertl
Last 5: Dickinson 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Dickinson
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (695)
54.1% (717)
-2.6%
Power Play
54.5% (11)
61.9% (210)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (210)
58.1% (31)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dickinson is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Dickinson shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Hertl
Home
53.6% (489)
58.1% (492)
Away
44.7% (427)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Dickinson
Hertl
P1
47.7%
57.1%
P2
52.1%
54.0%
P3
47.8%
56.6%
OT
83.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:35 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |