Connor McMichael vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 39.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Pageau 58.8% (-17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 77.8%
Defensive zone
McMichael 75.2%
Neutral zone
McMichael 82.7%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
McMichael
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McMichael
Pageau
Last 8: McMichael 2-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
3
McMichael
Pageau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
2
McMichael
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
59.1% (687)
-16.7%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
69.4% (36)
-20.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
60.1% (213)
-19.5%
On power play, Pageau has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McMichael is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (183).
McMichael shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pageau
Home
43.0% (298)
57.8% (377)
Away
42.5% (252)
61.0% (559)
By Period
McMichael
Pageau
P1
46.5%
54.1%
P2
41.1%
62.1%
P3
41.3%
61.8%
Final 5 min
44.0%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:13 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |