Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Kotkaniemi 51.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 52.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 91.1%
Neutral zone
Pageau 74.9%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
Last 8: Pageau 6-2 Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
0
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
51.7% (586)
+5.4%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
48.1% (52)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
62.5% (8)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Kotkaniemi has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
Home
57.0% (618)
49.5% (313)
Away
53.9% (607)
53.5% (333)
By Period
Pageau
Kotkaniemi
P1
54.4%
54.5%
P2
61.0%
51.1%
P3
51.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 17:21 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 18:02 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 16:49 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 03:48 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |