Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs John Tavares
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Pageau wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Tavares 57.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 80.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.1%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Pageau
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Pageau
Tavares
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Pageau
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
3
Pageau
Tavares
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Pageau
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
58.0% (914)
+1.1%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
57.0% (235)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
57.9% (19)
+2.2%
On power play, Pageau has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Pageau shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Pageau
Tavares
Home
57.8% (377)
57.8% (614)
Away
61.0% (559)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Pageau
Tavares
P1
54.1%
58.0%
P2
62.1%
56.9%
P3
61.8%
58.4%
OT
75.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
63.1%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 14:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 15:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |