Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs John Tavares
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 54.4%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 69 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Tavares 54.4% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 95-90 in 185 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 78.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 54.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Pageau
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
90
-
95
(185 meetings)
90
95
Pageau
Tavares
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
16
53
Pageau
Tavares
69 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
51
22
Pageau
Tavares
73 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
23
20
Pageau
Tavares
43 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
54.0% (16,108)
+1.7%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
56.5% (4,283)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
50.6% (620)
-1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Pageau
Tavares
Home
56.3% (6,214)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Pageau
Tavares
P1
54.6%
55.0%
P2
56.3%
54.1%
P3
53.5%
54.1%
OT
54.4%
55.9%
Final 5 min
53.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 14:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 15:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 14:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |