Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 81.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.1%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Pageau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Pageau
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Pageau
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
50.0% (992)
+9.1%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
64.9% (148)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
34.4% (32)
+25.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Pageau shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Pageau
MacKinnon
Home
57.8% (377)
53.3% (591)
Away
61.0% (559)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Pageau
MacKinnon
P1
54.1%
49.9%
P2
62.1%
53.2%
P3
61.8%
50.8%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
63.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:11 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |