Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pageau wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 56.7% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 65.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 71.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 71.0%
29.0%
71.0%
Pageau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Pageau
MacKinnon
Last 10: Pageau 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Pageau
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
5
Pageau
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.8% (889)
44.7% (1,053)
+14.1%
Power Play
58.2% (182)
36.8% (95)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (185)
65.0% (20)
-16.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pageau is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (376).
Pageau shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Pageau
MacKinnon
Home
59.0% (595)
49.4% (553)
Away
55.7% (661)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Pageau
MacKinnon
P1
58.9%
45.3%
P2
57.9%
42.7%
P3
55.6%
45.1%
OT
44.4%
46.2%
Final 5 min
56.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:30 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:35 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |