Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 70.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Pageau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pageau
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
49.2% (1,266)
+10.4%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
54.9% (193)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
49.1% (55)
+7.3%
On even strength, Pageau has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pageau is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Pageau shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Pageau
MacKinnon
Home
59.3% (506)
50.9% (740)
Away
60.0% (482)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Pageau
MacKinnon
P1
56.8%
50.9%
P2
64.4%
51.8%
P3
56.9%
47.1%
OT
75.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
61.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |