Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Pageau wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 61.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 92.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 88.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
Pageau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Pageau
MacKinnon
Last 10: Pageau 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
2
Pageau
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
45.5% (1,190)
+11.6%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
56.4% (94)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
40.0% (30)
+8.0%
On even strength, Pageau has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pageau is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (345).
Pageau shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Pageau
MacKinnon
Home
57.0% (618)
47.8% (670)
Away
53.9% (607)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Pageau
MacKinnon
P1
54.4%
45.3%
P2
61.0%
48.5%
P3
51.0%
45.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:56 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |