Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pageau wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Dowd 49.1% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 76.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 68.8%
Neutral zone
Pageau 53.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Pageau
Dowd
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Pageau
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
0
Pageau
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
51.7% (644)
+7.4%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
0.0% (2)
+69.4%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
41.6% (221)
+18.5%
On power play, Pageau has a +69.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
57.8% (377)
48.6% (451)
Away
61.0% (559)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
54.1%
49.1%
P2
62.1%
47.3%
P3
61.8%
51.4%
OT
75.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |