Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Dowd 49.9% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 90.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pageau
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Pageau
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
52.2% (835)
+7.4%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
60.0% (10)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
44.0% (350)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
59.3% (506)
51.5% (619)
Away
60.0% (482)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
56.8%
51.7%
P2
64.4%
51.6%
P3
56.9%
47.0%
OT
75.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
61.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |