Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 56.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 84.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 58.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pageau
Dowd
Last 6: Pageau 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
0
Pageau
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Pageau
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.8% (889)
55.2% (625)
+3.6%
Power Play
58.2% (182)
57.1% (7)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (185)
38.2% (220)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (376).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
59.0% (595)
53.7% (445)
Away
55.7% (661)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
58.9%
48.8%
P2
57.9%
49.3%
P3
55.6%
54.0%
OT
44.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2023 | OT | 03:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 01:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |