Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Dowd 48.3% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 82.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 62.7%
Neutral zone
Pageau 50.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Pageau
Dowd
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Pageau
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
49.2% (778)
+7.9%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
58.3% (12)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
44.0% (234)
+4.0%
On even strength, Pageau has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (345).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
57.0% (618)
46.3% (492)
Away
53.9% (607)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
54.4%
49.1%
P2
61.0%
48.2%
P3
51.0%
46.9%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |