Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Dowd 53.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 79.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 74.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.9%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Pageau
Dowd
Last 10: Pageau 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
6
1
Pageau
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Pageau
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Pageau
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (1,000)
55.4% (771)
+0.4%
Power Play
56.6% (182)
57.1% (7)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (170)
45.5% (165)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
57.1% (674)
58.2% (462)
Away
53.5% (678)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
56.9%
55.6%
P2
54.5%
50.5%
P3
54.7%
53.9%
OT
52.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 04:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:11 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 10:24 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 14:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:55 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 04:59 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |