Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.7% vs 56.3%). Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.9% vs Dowd 55.5% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 77.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Pageau
Dowd
Last 10: Pageau 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
7
2
Pageau
Dowd
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
6
Pageau
Dowd
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Pageau
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (674)
58.2% (617)
+0.1%
Power Play
57.1% (77)
71.4% (7)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (82)
47.2% (144)
-4.5%
On power play, Dowd has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (337).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
57.4% (439)
58.4% (399)
Away
55.8% (394)
53.9% (369)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
54.0%
59.0%
P2
55.0%
56.1%
P3
60.8%
54.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.0%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
56.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 04:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 10:11 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 10:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 18:54 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 1 | 11:03 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 05:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |