Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nick Schmaltz
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 52.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 91.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 83.9%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Pageau
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Pageau
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Pageau
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
45.9% (665)
+13.2%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
46.8% (111)
+22.6%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
50.0% (24)
+10.1%
On power play, Pageau has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Pageau shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Pageau
Schmaltz
Home
57.8% (377)
44.7% (409)
Away
61.0% (559)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Pageau
Schmaltz
P1
54.1%
40.3%
P2
62.1%
47.6%
P3
61.8%
51.0%
OT
75.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 13:54 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |