Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nico Sturm
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 51.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 55.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 59.0%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Pageau
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Pageau
Sturm
Last 10: Pageau 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Pageau
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Pageau
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
0
Pageau
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
60.6% (708)
-3.5%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
61.1% (18)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
56.4% (101)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Pageau
Sturm
Home
57.0% (618)
61.6% (451)
Away
53.9% (607)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Pageau
Sturm
P1
54.4%
55.9%
P2
61.0%
58.9%
P3
51.0%
64.6%
OT
50.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
53.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 02:45 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | OT | 01:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 02:30 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |