Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nico Sturm

2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Nico Sturm holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Pageau 55.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-4.7%)
H2H factor Sturm leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone Pageau 51.2%
Defensive zone Pageau 55.4%
Neutral zone Pageau 59.0%
Result Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Pageau Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5 - 6 (11 meetings)
5
6
Pageau Sturm
Last 10: Pageau 4-6 Sturm

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Pageau Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Pageau Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
0
Pageau Sturm
4 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Pageau
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
60.6% (708)
-3.5%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
61.1% (18)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
56.4% (101)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +8.4% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Pageau
Sturm
Home
57.0% (618)
61.6% (451)
Away
53.9% (607)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Pageau
Sturm
P1
54.4%
55.9%
P2
61.0%
58.9%
P3
51.0%
64.6%
OT
50.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
53.8%
59.5%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%
57.5%
55.4%
Sturm
52.0%
57.5%
60.1%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Mar 7, 2024 3 15:02 Offensive Nico Sturm
Mar 7, 2024 3 07:54 Offensive Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Mar 7, 2024 2 02:45 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Mar 7, 2024 2 00:00 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Mar 7, 2024 1 04:37 Defensive Nico Sturm
Dec 5, 2023 OT 01:50 Defensive Nico Sturm
Dec 5, 2023 2 18:23 Offensive Nico Sturm
Dec 5, 2023 2 02:30 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Dec 5, 2023 2 02:17 Offensive Nico Sturm
Dec 5, 2023 1 16:15 Offensive Nico Sturm
Dec 5, 2023 1 10:22 Neutral Jean-Gabriel Pageau