Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nico Sturm
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Sturm 56.1% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 61.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 55.2%
Neutral zone
Pageau 53.2%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Pageau
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
15
(26 meetings)
11
15
Pageau
Sturm
Last 10: Pageau 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
7
Pageau
Sturm
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
7
Pageau
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
1
Pageau
Sturm
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
57.1% (2,719)
-1.4%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
61.3% (62)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
51.0% (498)
-1.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Pageau
Sturm
Home
56.3% (6,214)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Pageau
Sturm
P1
54.6%
56.5%
P2
56.3%
54.9%
P3
53.5%
57.4%
OT
54.4%
60.6%
Final 5 min
53.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 02:45 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | OT | 01:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 02:30 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 14:40 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |