Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tierney wins 43.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 45.2% vs Carter 52.4% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tierney 71.2%
Defensive zone
Tierney 66.8%
Neutral zone
Tierney 71.1%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Tierney
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Tierney
Carter
Last 8: Tierney 2-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tierney
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Tierney
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
3
Tierney
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (321)
51.5% (934)
-7.9%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
58.5% (164)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
52.6% (95)
-12.6%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Tierney is 43.5% vs right-shot opponents (138).
Tierney shoots left. Carter is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (810).
Home / Away
Tierney
Carter
Home
46.5% (127)
55.1% (554)
Away
42.3% (215)
50.4% (639)
By Period
Tierney
Carter
P1
42.7%
50.8%
P2
39.2%
52.1%
P3
48.8%
54.8%
Final 5 min
42.5%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
43.9%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2015 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 3 | 01:24 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 05:43 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 01:34 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |